LLYFinished
- Final return
- +27.4%
- vs similar stocks
- +18.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 2, 2026
- Exit date
- Jul 1, 2026
3+ FDA approvals while markets are jumpy
Buy Approvals Through the Chaos · FDA drug approvals
This looks for drug-company stocks that may rise when they win several FDA approvals (three or more in about six months) during a scary, jumpy market, measured by a high VIX (the market's fear gauge). The idea is that when most drug stocks are being dumped, a fresh approval stands out and gets rewarded more. Heads up: most of this came from one recent, unusually fearful stretch, so it may only work again when the market is similarly stressed.
Newest idea 198 days ago
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: FDA drug approvals, 1 day · Every feed →
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Waiting for source dates
Publication check: Needs a fresh test
Some inputs have no verified public dates yet, so these are not graded.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+11.2%
on average after 3 months · 100 tries
Similar stocks returned
+2.6%
this did 8.6 percentage points better
Made money in
74 of 100
tries (74%)
100 tries finished the 3-month test · 0 still open · 201 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 4 of 100 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 8.6 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | +4.3 pp to +13.3 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 100 tries on 34 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 88% from a single year ⚠ one year did most of it |
| Spread across many stocks? | 18% from a single stock ✓ broad |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +7.3 pp vs similar stocks without BHC ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 100 finished ideas: 3 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- LLY · Apr 2, 2026 · Return +27.4% · +18.3 pp vs similar stocks
- NVS · Apr 2, 2026 · Return −0.1% · −9.3 pp vs similar stocks
- PFE · Apr 2, 2026 · Return −14.5% · −23.6 pp vs similar stocks
- ABBV · Apr 1, 2026 · Return +17.8% · +10.0 pp vs similar stocks
- TEVA · Mar 31, 2026 · Return +10.4% · +0.3 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
LLY · Apr 2, 2026 · Return +27.4% · +18.3 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- LLY · Apr 2, 2026 · Return +27.4% · +18.3 pp vs similar stocks
- NVS · Apr 2, 2026 · Return −0.1% · −9.3 pp vs similar stocks
- PFE · Apr 2, 2026 · Return −14.5% · −23.6 pp vs similar stocks
- ABBV · Apr 1, 2026 · Return +17.8% · +10.0 pp vs similar stocks
- TEVA · Mar 31, 2026 · Return +10.4% · +0.3 pp vs similar stocks
Ideas for the week of Oct 12
This week's list isn't set yet — it's set on the first fresh data of the week of Oct 19.
This rule published no ideas for the week of Oct 12.
Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 0 still open · 100 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
NVSFinished
- Final return
- −0.1%
- vs similar stocks
- −9.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 2, 2026
- Exit date
- Jul 1, 2026
PFEFinished
- Final return
- −14.5%
- vs similar stocks
- −23.6 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 2, 2026
- Exit date
- Jul 1, 2026
ABBVFinished
- Final return
- +17.8%
- vs similar stocks
- +10.0 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 1, 2026
- Exit date
- Jun 30, 2026
TEVAFinished
- Final return
- +10.4%
- vs similar stocks
- +0.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Mar 31, 2026
- Exit date
- Jun 29, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Apr 2, 2026 | Finished | Jul 1, 2026 | +27.4% | +18.3 pp |
| NVS | Apr 2, 2026 | Finished | Jul 1, 2026 | −0.1% | −9.3 pp |
| PFE | Apr 2, 2026 | Finished | Jul 1, 2026 | −14.5% | −23.6 pp |
| ABBV | Apr 1, 2026 | Finished | Jun 30, 2026 | +17.8% | +10.0 pp |
| TEVA | Mar 31, 2026 | Finished | Jun 29, 2026 | +10.4% | +0.3 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 100 ideas
95 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+11.2%
range for the average (95%): +6.8% to +16.2%
Edge over similar stocks
+8.6 pp
range for the average (95%): +4.3 pp to +13.3 pp
Held a year instead: +40.4% on average (64 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 1.21 — very steady: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- The stocks it picked trade a median $294M a day; 0% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $2.9M.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): normal +9.5 pp (35 tries) · stressed +8.1 pp (65 tries).