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Patterns in public records, tested

Strategies firing now

The strategies with an idea open right now, each with its honest grade — how it did against similar stocks in past tests, the ones that don't work included.

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Browse the strategies

Updated Oct 17

Strategies we test
23
plus 2 still gathering data
Solid evidence
None yet
beat similar stocks by more than luck
Firing now
18
of all 23, with an idea open today

A strategy’s big number is its edge over similar stocks in past tests; the smaller line is its average return over the stated hold (monthly strategies show an average month). Weekly Top 10 shows its total tracked return. Hypothetical results — not investment advice.

ThemeAll23Firing now18FDA & biotech5Fear & greed1
More filters: evidence, direction, sort
EvidenceSolid0Solid or some0All18
DirectionAll18Buy11Sell short7Buy + sell short0

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

SortBest edgeMost triesNewest idea

No rule has passed the publication check yet — here is what it takes

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Showing 18 of 23 strategies · Firing now

Nancy Pelosi's reported stock buysThe Speaker's StashDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+25.5 pp+40.1% avg. over 1 year, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 1 year later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 1 year
  3. Sell 1 year later

In past tests · each idea held 1 year

Each idea returned
+40.1%
on average
Vs similar stocks
25.5
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
11 of 16
tries — too few to trust yet

10 open now · next sell Jan 26, 2027 · Congress trades

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Sell short after a reverse stock splitSell When a Reverse Stock Split Takes EffectDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+16.5 pp+14.0% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
+14.0%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
16.5
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
42 of 66
tries (64%)

2 open now · next buy-back Oct 25 · Company filings

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3+ insiders buy after a 30% dropInsiders Buy the DipDirection: Buy Collecting forward evidencePast checks passedvs similar stocks+8.0 pp+17.3% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Its past tests passed our checks; now it must hold up on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+17.3%
on average
Vs similar stocks
8.0
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
1,900 of 2,952
tries (64%)

60 open now · next sell Oct 18 · Insider filings

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Congress buys after a failed drug trialBuy the Trial FlopDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+5.9 pp+10.2% avg. over 6 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 6 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 6 months
  3. Sell 6 months later

In past tests · each idea held 6 months

Each idea returned
+10.2%
on average
Vs similar stocks
5.9
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
51 of 73
tries (70%)

10 open now · next sell Jan 2, 2027 · Congress trades

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Insider buys 30% drop during market fearFear + Dip = BuyDirection: Buy Waiting for source datesNot graded until re-testedvs similar stocks+5.0 pp+12.3% avg. over 6 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 6 months later

These come from an older version of our test and are not graded until it is rerun.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 6 months
  3. Sell 6 months later

In past tests · each idea held 6 months

Each idea returned
+12.3%
on average
Vs similar stocks
5.0
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
464 of 901
tries (51%)

1 open now · next sell Oct 17 · Insider filings

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Sell short after an FDA clinical holdSell When the FDA Puts a Trial on HoldDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+4.4 pp−0.3% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−0.3%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
4.4
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
107 of 222
tries (48%)

8 open now · next buy-back Sep 21 · Company filings

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CFO buys $25K+ of own stockCFO ConvictionDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+3.6 pp+8.0% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+8.0%
on average
Vs similar stocks
3.6
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
1,315 of 2,178
tries (60%)

65 open now · next sell Oct 21 · Insider filings

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Senators' reported stock buysThe Senate TapeDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+3.5 pp+22.1% avg. over 1 year, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 1 year later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 1 year
  3. Sell 1 year later

In past tests · each idea held 1 year

Each idea returned
+22.1%
on average
Vs similar stocks
3.5
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
1,395 of 1,904
tries (73%)

508 open now · next sell Oct 28 · Congress trades

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Sell short after a private share saleCorporate events (8-K)Direction: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+3.2 pp−0.7% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−0.7%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
3.2
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
783 of 1,595
tries (49%)

69 open now · next buy-back Oct 18 · Corporate events

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Sell short after an earnings-delay noticeCan't File? Short ItDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+3.2 pp−0.5% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−0.5%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
3.2
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
84 of 165
tries (51%)

5 open now · next buy-back Nov 10 · Late-filing notices

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House member buys before a drug-trial updateLab Coats & LawmakersDirection: Buy Collecting forward evidencePast checks passedvs similar stocks+2.9 pp+5.4% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Its past tests passed our checks; now it must hold up on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+5.4%
on average
Vs similar stocks
2.9
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
146 of 196
tries (74%)

10 open now · next sell Nov 8 · ClinicalTrials.gov events

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Buy when a major drug trial completesBuy Drugmakers When a Major Drug Trial FinishesDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+2.5 pp+7.5% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+7.5%
on average
Vs similar stocks
2.5
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
38 of 62
tries (61%)

17 open now · next sell Oct 21 · ClinicalTrials.gov events

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Sell short after a civil investigative demandSell When a Regulator Demands DocumentsDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+2.5 pp−3.3% avg. short return over 6 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 6 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 6 months
  3. Close it 6 months later

In past tests · each short position held 6 months

Selling each stock short made
−3.3%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
2.5
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
343 of 728
tries (47%)

50 open now · next buy-back Oct 19 · Company filings

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Sell short after repeated SEC accounting lettersSell When the SEC Keeps Questioning the AccountingDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+2.4 pp0.0% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
0.0%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
2.4
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
462 of 932
tries (50%)

10 open now · next buy-back Nov 10 · SEC staff comment letters

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Buy new spin-offs after their first weekBuy New Spin-Offs After Their First WeekDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+2.2 pp+5.3% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+5.3%
on average
Vs similar stocks
2.2
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
52 of 95
tries (55%)

2 open now · next sell Nov 9 · Spin-offs

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Companies with a federal lobbying filingAt the TroughDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+2.0 pp+6.0% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+6.0%
on average
Vs similar stocks
2.0
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
2,889 of 5,014
tries (58%)

338 open now · next sell Oct 18 · Lobbying

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CFO buys $25K+ of own liquid stockCFO Conviction, LiquidDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+2.0 pp+6.6% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+6.6%
on average
Vs similar stocks
2.0
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
862 of 1,426
tries (60%)

47 open now · next sell Oct 21 · Insider filings

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Sell short after SEC accounting questionsSell When the SEC Questions the AccountingDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+1.2 pp−1.9% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−1.9%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
1.2
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
954 of 2,117
tries (45%)

30 open now · next buy-back Oct 21 · SEC staff comment letters

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Go deeper

Our track record →The ideas we show, tracked from the day we first show them — misses included.How we test →Each idea is measured against similar stocks over a fixed hold. Here is how the grade works.Combine rules yourself →Mix our strategies in the Strategy Lab and get the same honest grade.Compare strategies →Put two or three side by side: grades, numbers and shared trades.

Hypothetical, not investment advice. Each position is opened at the next trading day’s close after the record became public and held for the stated time. Sell short ideas assume borrowed shares are sold, then bought back to close. Past results do not predict future results.