CREXFinished
- Final return
- −40.3%
- vs similar stocks
- −49.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 6, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 5, 2026
CFO buys $25K+ of own stock
Buy CFO Conviction · Insider filings
This looks for stocks that may rise after a CFO (a company's top finance boss) buys shares on the open market. CFOs see the money side closest of all, like cash flow and margins before they are reported. These buys are rare because most CFO pay is in stock grants, so a real cash purchase stands out as a confidence signal.
Newest idea 10 days ago
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: Insider filings, 2 days · Every feed →
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 4 of 16 checks:
- Some trades have no price we could check, often at companies that later stopped trading. The range shown counts only the priced ones; counting the rest at a poor result pulls its low end below zero.
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 12: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Enough separate trading days · Positive edge after costs · Survives without the best year · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 3-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
1 signals set aside across 1 disclosure days; 1 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+8.0%
on average after 3 months · 2,178 tries
Similar stocks returned
+4.4%
this did 3.6 percentage points better
Made money in
1,315 of 2,178
tries (60%)
2,178 tries finished the 3-month test · 65 still open · 4,961 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 314 of 2,178 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 3.6 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | +2.1 pp to +5.1 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 2,178 tries on 1,245 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 28% from a single year ✓ spread across years |
| Spread across many stocks? | 9% from a single stock ✓ broad |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +3.2 pp vs similar stocks without CABA ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 2,178 finished ideas: 4 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- CREX · Jul 6, 2026 · Return −40.3% · −49.9 pp vs similar stocks
- SBSW · Jul 1, 2026 · Return +24.6% · +27.9 pp vs similar stocks
- FISV · Jun 22, 2026 · Return −1.7% · +4.5 pp vs similar stocks
- REI · Jun 17, 2026 · Return +35.5% · +14.0 pp vs similar stocks
- ADSK · Jun 16, 2026 · Return +13.5% · +14.5 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
CREX · Jul 6, 2026 · Return −40.3% · −49.9 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- CREX · Jul 6, 2026 · Return −40.3% · −49.9 pp vs similar stocks
- SBSW · Jul 1, 2026 · Return +24.6% · +27.9 pp vs similar stocks
- FISV · Jun 22, 2026 · Return −1.7% · +4.5 pp vs similar stocks
- REI · Jun 17, 2026 · Return +35.5% · +14.0 pp vs similar stocks
- ADSK · Jun 16, 2026 · Return +13.5% · +14.5 pp vs similar stocks
Who this fired on
The disclosed trades behind this rule's newest ideas.
- ▲ BUYPierre Thadee Victor Kemula Chief Financial OfficerAGMB AgomAb Therapeutics NV$17.1Kdisclosed Oct 7 · filed 1 day after the trade 3 rules fired
- ▲ BUYFrancisco Gonzalez Chief Financial OfficerSKYH Sky Harbour Group Corp$35.6Kdisclosed Oct 5 · filed 3 days after the trade 2 rules fired
- ▲ BUYHarold J Meloche CFO, TreasurerPRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc.$26.1Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 1 day after the trade 2 rules fired
- ▲ BUYThomas Patrick Kelly Chief Financial OfficerXENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.$560Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 1 day after the trade 2 rules fired
- ▲ BUYGreg Cavers Chief Financial OfficerHELP Helus Pharma Inc.$38.7Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 2 days after the trade 2 rules fired
- ▲ BUYJingjing Eason Zhang VP and Chief Financial OfficerMNSO MINISO Group Holding Ltd$340Kdisclosed Sep 30 · filed 1 day after the trade 2 rules fired
- ▲ BUYCary D Baetz EVP and CFOINR Infinity Natural Resources, Inc.$296Kdisclosed Sep 28 · filed 4 days after the trade 2 rules fired
- ▲ BUYCory Hatton Interim CFOPLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.$26Kdisclosed Sep 28 · filed the same day 2 rules fired
- ▲ BUYNavdeep Gupta EVP, Chief Financial OfficerDKS Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.$1Mdisclosed Sep 24 · filed 2 days after the trade 3 rules fired
- ▲ BUYJawad Chaudhry Chief Financial OfficerBCBP Bcb Bancorp Inc$77.5Kdisclosed Sep 22 · filed 4 days after the trade 2 rules fired
Others who traded the same stock that week
Disclosed trades on the same side, within three days of one of this rule's ideas.
- ▲ BUYDavid R Epstein DirectorAGMB AgomAb Therapeutics NV$44.5Kdisclosed Oct 9 · filed 1 day after the trade
- ▲ BUYTim Jasper Knotnerus Chief Executive OfficerAGMB AgomAb Therapeutics NV$43.5Kdisclosed Oct 7 · filed 1 day after the trade
- ▲ BUYJoseph D Sarafa DirectorPRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc.$74.2Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 1 day after the trade
- ▲ BUYBrian J Roney Chief Executive OfficerPRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc.$50.6Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 1 day after the trade
- ▲ BUYIsolde O'Hanlon DirectorPRHI Presurance Holdings, Inc.$48.9Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 1 day after the trade
Ideas for the week of Jul 13
Week of Jul 13 · 3 ideas, weighted by signal strength, each sold 3 months after it fired — information to research, not an order to buy or sell.
Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 65 still open · 2,178 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
SBSWFinished
- Final return
- +24.6%
- vs similar stocks
- +27.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 1, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 29, 2026
FISVFinished
- Final return
- −1.7%
- vs similar stocks
- +4.5 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jun 22, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 21, 2026
REIFinished
- Final return
- +35.5%
- vs similar stocks
- +14.0 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jun 17, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 15, 2026
ADSKFinished
- Final return
- +13.5%
- vs similar stocks
- +14.5 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jun 16, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 14, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CREX | Jul 6, 2026 | Finished | Oct 5, 2026 | −40.3% | −49.9 pp |
| SBSW | Jul 1, 2026 | Finished | Sep 29, 2026 | +24.6% | +27.9 pp |
| FISV | Jun 22, 2026 | Finished | Sep 21, 2026 | −1.7% | +4.5 pp |
| REI | Jun 17, 2026 | Finished | Sep 15, 2026 | +35.5% | +14.0 pp |
| ADSK | Jun 16, 2026 | Finished | Sep 14, 2026 | +13.5% | +14.5 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 2,243 ideas
2,238 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
Already a member? Sign in
The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+8.0%
range for the average (95%): +6.5% to +9.6%
Edge over similar stocks
+3.6 pp
range for the average (95%): +2.1 pp to +5.1 pp
Held a year instead: +23.6% on average (1,959 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.47 — choppy: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is +2.7 pp instead of +3.6 pp — part of the edge is those tilts — the real edge is smaller. Tilts: Size +1.05 · Market +1.04 · Profitability +0.29 · R² 0.09.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $7.5M a day; 30% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $74.7K; with 65 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $4.9M.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +0.9 pp (280 tries) · normal +4.2 pp (888 tries) · stressed +5.7 pp (220 tries).