AVNSFinished
- Final return
- −3.8%
- vs similar-stock shorts
- +8.0 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 15, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 12, 2026
Sell short after a civil investigative demand
Sell short Sell When a Regulator Demands Documents · Company filings
Selling short: it profits when the stock falls — shares are borrowed to sell and bought back later. It needs a brokerage account approved for short selling (a margin account), and you can lose more than the money you put in.
This sells the stock short, aiming to profit if it falls. A civil investigative demand is a regulator ordering a company to hand over its records before any lawsuit. Companies say so in their SEC filings. We sell the stock short the first time it comes up and hold the bet for six months, because a demand turns into a suit or a settlement over months, not weeks.
Technical details
Source: EDGAR text flags (Wells notice, subpoena, civil investigative demand, reverse split, FDA hold / CRL / warning letter / breakthrough, strategic alternatives, buyback, dividend raise / cut, convertible notes, ransomware, short-seller reply, activist settlement, special dividend, forbearance, covenant waiver, guidance withdrawal, Paragraph IV; 8-K, 10-Q, 10-K and 6-K)
Newest idea 3 days ago
Updated Oct 16
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 6 months (180 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Sell short when it fires
Sell borrowed shares at the next trading day’s close after the record posts.
Hold 6 months
The same hold for every idea, with no target. One exception: in these tests a short is bought back early if the price doubles — a −100% result.
Close it 6 months later
Buy the shares back 6 months after the sale, on the next available trading close.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 4 of 16 checks:
- Some trades have no price we could check, often at companies that later stopped trading. The range shown counts only the priced ones; counting the rest at a poor result pulls its low end below zero.
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 12: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Enough separate trading days · Positive edge after costs · Survives without the best year · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 6-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
4 signals set aside across 2 disclosure days; 1 still need complete results. 3 fell outside the rule's own price floors and count as resolved. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, selling each stock short made
−3.3%
on average over 6 months · 728 tries
Selling similar stocks short instead returned
−5.8%
the short position did 2.5 percentage points better
Made money in
343 of 728
tries (47%)
728 tries finished the 6-month test · 50 still open · 1,986 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 73 of 757 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 2.5 percentage points better than selling similar stocks short — over 6 months |
|---|---|
| Paid for borrowing the shares? | Yes, about 1.2 percentage points off the average. Every figure above already takes it out. It is our estimate, from how easy each stock was to borrow. Without the fee: 3.7 percentage points better than selling similar stocks short. |
| Range for the average (95%) | +0.5 pp to +4.4 pp vs selling similar stocks short — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 728 tries on 581 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 33% from a single year ✓ spread across years |
| Spread across many stocks? | 7% from a single stock ✓ broad |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +2.6 pp vs selling similar stocks short without EQT ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 728 finished ideas: 2 of 5 beat selling similar stocks short — one block each, newest first
- AVNS · Apr 15, 2026 · Return −3.8% · +8.0 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- ATNI · Apr 8, 2026 · Return −10.4% · −11.8 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- MKC · Apr 7, 2026 · Return +8.6% · +9.7 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- PFIS · Apr 6, 2026 · Return −30.9% · −22.1 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- HBM · Mar 30, 2026 · Return −41.5% · −39.9 pp vs similar-stock shorts
did betterdid worseno comparison
AVNS · Apr 15, 2026 · Return −3.8% · +8.0 pp vs similar-stock shorts
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable short-position return.
- AVNS · Apr 15, 2026 · Return −3.8% · +8.0 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- ATNI · Apr 8, 2026 · Return −10.4% · −11.8 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- MKC · Apr 7, 2026 · Return +8.6% · +9.7 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- PFIS · Apr 6, 2026 · Return −30.9% · −22.1 pp vs similar-stock shorts
- HBM · Mar 30, 2026 · Return −41.5% · −39.9 pp vs similar-stock shorts
Ideas for the week of Oct 12
This week's list isn't set yet — it's set on the first fresh data of the week of Oct 19.
That week's 4 ideas from this rule
Members see the stocks and their weights. Weeks older than 90 days are free for everyone — pick one below.
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Every idea
Results under the 6-month hold · 50 still open · 728 finished · each idea's buy-back day is 6 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far · a short position’s result is what selling the stock short made.
ATNIFinished
- Final return
- −10.4%
- vs similar-stock shorts
- −11.8 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 8, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 5, 2026
MKCFinished
- Final return
- +8.6%
- vs similar-stock shorts
- +9.7 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 7, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 5, 2026
PFISFinished
- Final return
- −30.9%
- vs similar-stock shorts
- −22.1 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 6, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 5, 2026
HBMFinished
- Final return
- −41.5%
- vs similar-stock shorts
- −39.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Mar 30, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 28, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Buy-back day | Result | vs similar-stock shorts (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVNS | Apr 15, 2026 | Finished | Oct 12, 2026 | −3.8% | +8.0 pp |
| ATNI | Apr 8, 2026 | Finished | Oct 5, 2026 | −10.4% | −11.8 pp |
| MKC | Apr 7, 2026 | Finished | Oct 5, 2026 | +8.6% | +9.7 pp |
| PFIS | Apr 6, 2026 | Finished | Oct 5, 2026 | −30.9% | −22.1 pp |
| HBM | Mar 30, 2026 | Finished | Sep 28, 2026 | −41.5% | −39.9 pp |
pp = percentage points: the short-position return minus the comparable short-position return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 778 ideas
773 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (6 months)
−3.3%
range for the average (95%): −5.3% to −1.2%
Edge over selling similar stocks short
+2.5 pp
range for the average (95%): +0.5 pp to +4.4 pp
Held a year instead (selling short): −7.6% on average (655 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) −0.18 — choppy: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every buy-back rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is +1.5 pp instead of +0.4 pp — the edge holds up after them. Tilts: Market −1.09 · Investment −0.31 · Size −0.28 · R² 0.11.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $32.9M a day; 0% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $329K; with 50 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $16.5M.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +1.9 pp (84 tries) · normal +1.5 pp (321 tries) · stressed −2.0 pp (56 tries).