EFABuy · Open · day 16 of 30
- Return so far
- —
- vs similar stocks
- —
Dates & source
- Fired
- Oct 1, 2026
- Scheduled exit
- Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days
Follow rising trends across stocks, bonds, gold
Buy Ride Every Trend · Stock prices
This is a way to stay invested more smoothly, not a stock picker. Each month, half of it follows whatever is trending up across many markets (U.S. and foreign stocks, government bonds, gold, oil, commodities, the dollar) and only holds each one while it is rising. The other half sits in a plain mix of stocks and bonds. The goal is to soften the deep drops. Heads up: this still moves with the market and is not crash insurance.
Newest basket 16 days ago
Prices through Oct 17
On this page
How the test works
These tests hold the basket for one month, then re-pick it. The holding period is the time between those monthly updates.
Pick the basket each month
The stocks the rule ranks best at the start of the month — and, when it also sells short, the ones it ranks worst.
Hold 1 month
Every position, whatever it does — no stop, no target.
Re-pick next month
Sell what dropped out of the ranking, keep what stayed, add what came in.
Every number on this page uses this monthly re-pick.
How it did in past tests
Needs a fresh test — built with an older method
Publication check: Needs a fresh test
It needs rebuilding so its basket picks only from what was known at the time, counts trading costs and keeps every result.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, this strategy returned
+0.7%
in an average month
Similar stocks returned
+0.8%
this did 0.1 percentage points worse
Made money in
63 of 133
months (47%)
133 monthly baskets finished the test · 10 still open · 133 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
This strategy is measured against 60/40 (SPY/IEF).
| How it did against similar stocks | 0.1 percentage points worse than similar stocks — a month |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | −0.2 pp to 0.0 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 133 monthly baskets ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 90% from a single year ⚠ one year did most of it |
| Spread across many stocks? | 0% from a single stock ✓ broad |
The basket in the week of Jul 13
Week of Jul 13 · 9 stocks, weighted by signal strength, re-picked next month — information to research, not an order to buy or sell.
Every idea
Results under the 1-month hold · 10 still open · 120 stock positions finished · each idea's sell day is 1 month after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
IEFBuy · Open · day 16 of 30
- Return so far
- —
- vs similar stocks
- —
Dates & source
- Fired
- Oct 1, 2026
- Scheduled exit
- Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days
IWMBuy · Open · day 16 of 30
- Return so far
- —
- vs similar stocks
- —
Dates & source
- Fired
- Oct 1, 2026
- Scheduled exit
- Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days
SPYBuy · Open · day 16 of 30
- Return so far
- —
- vs similar stocks
- —
Dates & source
- Fired
- Oct 1, 2026
- Scheduled exit
- Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days
UUPBuy · Open · day 16 of 30
- Return so far
- —
- vs similar stocks
- —
Dates & source
- Fired
- Oct 1, 2026
- Scheduled exit
- Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days
OVERLAYBuy · Finished
- Final return
- +0.3%
- vs similar stocks
- +0.2 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Mar 1, 2017
- Exit date
- Mar 31, 2017
OVERLAYBuy · Finished
- Final return
- +2.4%
- vs similar stocks
- −0.2 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Feb 1, 2017
- Exit date
- Mar 3, 2017
OVERLAYBuy · Finished
- Final return
- +1.4%
- vs similar stocks
- +0.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jan 1, 2017
- Exit date
- Jan 31, 2017
OVERLAYBuy · Finished
- Final return
- +1.5%
- vs similar stocks
- +0.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Dec 1, 2016
- Exit date
- Dec 31, 2016
OVERLAYBuy · Finished
- Final return
- +0.2%
- vs similar stocks
- −0.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Nov 1, 2016
- Exit date
- Dec 1, 2016
| Stock | Side | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFA | Buy | Oct 1, 2026 | Open · day 16 of 30 | Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days | — | — |
| IEF | Buy | Oct 1, 2026 | Open · day 16 of 30 | Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days | — | — |
| IWM | Buy | Oct 1, 2026 | Open · day 16 of 30 | Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days | — | — |
| SPY | Buy | Oct 1, 2026 | Open · day 16 of 30 | Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days | — | — |
| UUP | Buy | Oct 1, 2026 | Open · day 16 of 30 | Oct 31, 2026 · in 14 days | — | — |
| OVERLAY | Buy | Mar 1, 2017 | Finished | Mar 31, 2017 | +0.3% | +0.2 pp |
| OVERLAY | Buy | Feb 1, 2017 | Finished | Mar 3, 2017 | +2.4% | −0.2 pp |
| OVERLAY | Buy | Jan 1, 2017 | Finished | Jan 31, 2017 | +1.4% | +0.3 pp |
| OVERLAY | Buy | Dec 1, 2016 | Finished | Dec 31, 2016 | +1.5% | +0.3 pp |
| OVERLAY | Buy | Nov 1, 2016 | Finished | Dec 1, 2016 | +0.2% | −0.3 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 10 of 130 ideas
120 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (a month)
+0.7%
range for the average (95%): +0.4% to +1.1%
Edge over similar stocks
−0.1 pp
range for the average (95%): −0.2 pp to 0.0 pp
Held a year instead: +8.8% on average (11 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 1.10 — very steady: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.