NAFinished
- Final return
- +4.9%
- vs similar stocks
- −3.0 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 17, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 15, 2026
3+ insiders buy after a 30% drop
Buy Insiders Buy the Dip · Insider filings
This stacks two signals: three or more insiders (top company executives, directors, or 10% owners) buying a stock on the open market in the past three months, and that stock being down 30% or more from three months earlier. The idea is that insider agreement plus a deep drop is a strong combined setup. It buys the day after the latest insider filing and holds for three months. Its past record is a rebound-year record: strong in 2020 and 2022-23, flat from 2024 to mid-2026.
Newest idea 2 days ago
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: Insider filings, 2 days · Every feed →
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Collecting forward evidence — past tests passed; new trades pending
Publication check: Collecting forward results
Not passed yet — 3 of 16 checks:
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 13: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Every trade priced · Enough separate trading days · Positive edge after costs · Survives without the best year · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 3-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
5 signals set aside across 5 disclosure days; 5 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+17.3%
on average after 3 months · 2,952 tries
Similar stocks returned
+9.3%
this did 8.0 percentage points better
Made money in
1,900 of 2,952
tries (64%)
2,952 tries finished the 3-month test · 60 still open · 14,150 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 329 of 2,952 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 8.0 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | +4.8 pp to +11.5 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 2,952 tries on 1,071 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 54% from a single year ✓ spread across years |
| Spread across many stocks? | 12% from a single stock ✓ broad |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +7.1 pp vs similar stocks without MTDR ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 2,952 finished ideas: 3 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- NA · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +4.9% · −3.0 pp vs similar stocks
- GLOO · Jul 14, 2026 · Return +12.2% · +5.2 pp vs similar stocks
- NA · Jul 14, 2026 · Return +4.7% · −2.3 pp vs similar stocks
- GLOO · Jul 13, 2026 · Return +20.1% · +11.6 pp vs similar stocks
- NA · Jul 9, 2026 · Return +20.0% · +11.2 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
NA · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +4.9% · −3.0 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- NA · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +4.9% · −3.0 pp vs similar stocks
- GLOO · Jul 14, 2026 · Return +12.2% · +5.2 pp vs similar stocks
- NA · Jul 14, 2026 · Return +4.7% · −2.3 pp vs similar stocks
- GLOO · Jul 13, 2026 · Return +20.1% · +11.6 pp vs similar stocks
- NA · Jul 9, 2026 · Return +20.0% · +11.2 pp vs similar stocks
Who this fired on
The disclosed trades behind this rule's newest ideas.
- ▲ BUYCharles G Pardee DirectorIMSR Terrestrial Energy Inc.$22.1Kdisclosed Oct 15 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYYi-Chien Lin 10% ownerXAIR Beyond Air, Inc.$5.8Kdisclosed Oct 14 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYFiorenzo Villani DirectorALP Alpha Compute Corp$19.6Kdisclosed Oct 13 · filed 6 days after the trade · late 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYDavid R Epstein DirectorAGMB AgomAb Therapeutics NV$44.5Kdisclosed Oct 9 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYMichael Jordan Osborn Chief Executive OfficerWVVI Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc$2disclosed Oct 8 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYPierre Thadee Victor Kemula Chief Financial OfficerAGMB AgomAb Therapeutics NV$17.1Kdisclosed Oct 7 · filed 1 day after the trade 3 rules fired
- ▲ BUYTim Jasper Knotnerus Chief Executive OfficerAGMB AgomAb Therapeutics NV$43.5Kdisclosed Oct 7 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYDivisadero Street Partners, L.P. 10% ownerLWAY Lifeway Foods, Inc.$761Kdisclosed Oct 6 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYDivisadero Street Partners GP, LLC 10% ownerLWAY Lifeway Foods, Inc.$761Kdisclosed Oct 6 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
- ▲ BUYDivisadero Street Capital, LLC 10% ownerLWAY Lifeway Foods, Inc.$761Kdisclosed Oct 6 · filed 1 day after the trade 1 rule fired
Others who traded the same stock that week
Disclosed trades on the same side, within three days of one of this rule's ideas.
- ▲ BUYSimon Irish Chief Executive OfficerIMSR Terrestrial Energy Inc.$50.8Kdisclosed Oct 14 · filed 1 day after the trade
- ▲ BUYJohn Walter Hazlett Chief Financial OfficerWVVI Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc$202disclosed Oct 13 · filed 4 days after the trade
- ▲ BUYFrederick W Buckman DirectorIMSR Terrestrial Energy Inc.$39.3Kdisclosed Oct 13 · filed 4 days after the trade
- ▲ BUYMatthew Barnes President - Foot Locker IntlDKS Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc.$500Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 1 day after the trade
- ▲ BUYThomas M Finke DirectorVENU Venu Holding Corp$75.9Kdisclosed Oct 1 · filed 2 days after the trade
Ideas for the week of Jul 13
Week of Jul 13 · 4 ideas, weighted by signal strength, each sold 3 months after it fired — information to research, not an order to buy or sell.
Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 60 still open · 2,952 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
GLOOFinished
- Final return
- +12.2%
- vs similar stocks
- +5.2 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 14, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 12, 2026
NAFinished
- Final return
- +4.7%
- vs similar stocks
- −2.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 14, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 12, 2026
GLOOFinished
- Final return
- +20.1%
- vs similar stocks
- +11.6 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 13, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 12, 2026
NAFinished
- Final return
- +20.0%
- vs similar stocks
- +11.2 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 9, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 7, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA | Jul 17, 2026 | Finished | Oct 15, 2026 | +4.9% | −3.0 pp |
| GLOO | Jul 14, 2026 | Finished | Oct 12, 2026 | +12.2% | +5.2 pp |
| NA | Jul 14, 2026 | Finished | Oct 12, 2026 | +4.7% | −2.3 pp |
| GLOO | Jul 13, 2026 | Finished | Oct 12, 2026 | +20.1% | +11.6 pp |
| NA | Jul 9, 2026 | Finished | Oct 7, 2026 | +20.0% | +11.2 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 3,012 ideas
3,007 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+17.3%
range for the average (95%): +13.7% to +21.1%
Edge over similar stocks
+8.0 pp
range for the average (95%): +4.8 pp to +11.5 pp
Held a year instead: +56.2% on average (2,747 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.66 — solid: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is +3.5 pp instead of +8.0 pp — part of the edge is those tilts — the real edge is smaller. Tilts: Momentum −1.13 · Market +0.86 · Profitability −0.73 · R² 0.12.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $2.8M a day; 44% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $28.1K; with 60 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $1.7M.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +2.1 pp (323 tries) · normal +6.0 pp (1,157 tries) · stressed +5.2 pp (228 tries).