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Insider buys 30% drop during market fear

Buy Fear + Dip = Buy · Insider filings

This looks for stocks that may rebound when fear is high and the price has crashed. It flags a stock when an insider (a top company executive or director) buys at least $50,000 of it during a stretch of extreme market fear, and the stock is also down 30% over the past three months. The thinking is that the name is cheap for two reasons at once. Heads up: this combo is rare, so it rests on very few trades and may not hold up.

Newest idea 178 days ago

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Insider buys 30% drop during market fear vertical poster. This looks for stocks that may rebound when fear is high and the price has crashed. It flags a stock when an insider (a top company executive or director) buys at least $50,000 of it during a stretch of extreme market fear, and the stock is also down 30% over the past three months. The thinking is that the name is cheap for two reasons at once. Heads up: this combo is rare, so it rests on very few trades and may not hold up.Insider buys 30% drop during market fear landscape card. This looks for stocks that may rebound when fear is high and the price has crashed. It flags a stock when an insider (a top company executive or director) buys at least $50,000 of it during a stretch of extreme market fear, and the stock is also down 30% over the past three months. The thinking is that the name is cheap for two reasons at once. Heads up: this combo is rare, so it rests on very few trades and may not hold up.

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Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: Insider filings, 1 day · Every feed →

On this page

How the test works

The planned holding period in these tests is 6 months (180 days), from opening to closing an idea.

  1. Buy it when it fires

    At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.

  2. Hold 6 months

    The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.

  3. Sell 6 months later

    At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.

Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.

How it did in past tests

Waiting for source dates

Publication check: Needs a fresh test

Some inputs have no verified public dates yet, so these are not graded.

Average difference in past tests+5.0 percentage pointsagainst similar stocks, over 6 months

Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.

In past tests, each idea returned
+12.3%
on average after 6 months · 901 tries
Similar stocks returned
+7.3%
this did 5.0 percentage points better
Made money in
464 of 901
tries (51%)

901 tries finished the 6-month test · 1 still open · 3,223 signals ever

Past results don't predict future ones.

Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 95 of 904 tries here.)

How it did against similar stocks5.0 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 6 months
Range for the average (95%)−0.2 pp to +10.4 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case
Tested on enough tries?901 tries on 308 separate days ✓ enough
Works in different markets?41% from a single year ✓ spread across years
Spread across many stocks?15% from a single stock ✓ broad
Still works without its biggest winner?+4.3 pp vs similar stocks without GO ✓ holds up
How we grade →

The 5 newest of 901 finished ideas: 1 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first

  1. ALZN · Apr 17, 2026 · Return +20.3% · +2.5 pp vs similar stocks
  2. SVRE · Apr 16, 2026 · Return −70.8% · −100.2 pp vs similar stocks
  3. NKE · Apr 15, 2026 · Return −20.9% · −16.3 pp vs similar stocks
  4. NKE · Apr 13, 2026 · Return −16.2% · −15.2 pp vs similar stocks
  5. TPST · Mar 26, 2026 · Return −40.0% · −57.5 pp vs similar stocks

did betterdid worseno comparison

ALZN · Apr 17, 2026 · Return +20.3% · +2.5 pp vs similar stocks

Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes

pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.

  1. ALZN · Apr 17, 2026 · Return +20.3% · +2.5 pp vs similar stocks
  2. SVRE · Apr 16, 2026 · Return −70.8% · −100.2 pp vs similar stocks
  3. NKE · Apr 15, 2026 · Return −20.9% · −16.3 pp vs similar stocks
  4. NKE · Apr 13, 2026 · Return −16.2% · −15.2 pp vs similar stocks
  5. TPST · Mar 26, 2026 · Return −40.0% · −57.5 pp vs similar stocks

Who this fired on

The disclosed trades behind this rule's newest ideas.

  1. ▲ BUYMatthew Angel CEO and PresidentTPST Tempest Therapeutics, Inc.$500Kdisclosed Jun 23 · filed 91 days after the trade · late 1 rule fired

Ideas for the week of Oct 12

This week's list isn't set yet — it's set on the first fresh data of the week of Oct 19.

This rule published no ideas for the week of Oct 12.

Every idea

Results under the 6-month hold · 1 still open · 901 finished · each idea's sell day is 6 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.

ALZNFinished
Final return
+20.3%
vs similar stocks
+2.5 pp
Dates & source
Fired
Apr 17, 2026
Exit date
Oct 14, 2026
SVREFinished
Final return
−70.8%
vs similar stocks
−100.2 pp
Dates & source
Fired
Apr 16, 2026
Exit date
Oct 13, 2026
NKEFinished
Final return
−20.9%
vs similar stocks
−16.3 pp
Dates & source
Fired
Apr 15, 2026
Exit date
Oct 12, 2026
NKEFinished
Final return
−16.2%
vs similar stocks
−15.2 pp
Dates & source
Fired
Apr 13, 2026
Exit date
Oct 12, 2026
TPSTFinished
Final return
−40.0%
vs similar stocks
−57.5 pp
Dates & source
Fired
Mar 26, 2026
Exit date
Sep 22, 2026
StockFiredStatusSell dayResultvs similar stocks (pp)
ALZNApr 17, 2026FinishedOct 14, 2026+20.3%+2.5 pp
SVREApr 16, 2026FinishedOct 13, 2026−70.8%−100.2 pp
NKEApr 15, 2026FinishedOct 12, 2026−20.9%−16.3 pp
NKEApr 13, 2026FinishedOct 12, 2026−16.2%−15.2 pp
TPSTMar 26, 2026FinishedSep 22, 2026−40.0%−57.5 pp

pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.

Showing 5 of 902 ideas

897 more ideas, each with its result
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The full test results and the math

pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.

Average result (6 months)
+12.3%
range for the average (95%): +7.1% to +17.7%
Edge over similar stocks
+5.0 pp
range for the average (95%): −0.2 pp to +10.4 pp

Held a year instead: +24.8% on average (839 tries).

Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.29 — choppy: how even the results were from one try to the next.

Every sell rule we tested

Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.

Risk and style checks

  • The stocks it picked trade a median $6.3M a day; 28% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
  • At one percent of that volume a trade is about $63.3K; with 1 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $63.3K.
  • The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +6.6 pp (53 tries) · normal +7.1 pp (535 tries) · stressed +5.7 pp (316 tries).

How we test and grade every rule →