LLYFinished
- Final return
- −2.4%
- vs similar stocks
- −6.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 9, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 7, 2026
House member buys before a drug-trial update
Buy Lab Coats & Lawmakers · ClinicalTrials.gov events
This looks for stocks that may rise. It flags a drug or biotech company when a clinical trial update lands and a U.S. House member also bought that same stock in the days just before. Pairing a trial event with a lawmaker's purchase is meant to be a double sign of confidence. Heads up: most of this came from a single recent year, so it may not repeat.
Newest idea 11 days ago
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: ClinicalTrials.gov events, 1 day · Every feed →
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Collecting forward evidence — past tests passed; new trades pending
Publication check: Collecting forward results
Not passed yet — 3 of 16 checks:
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 13: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Every trade priced · Enough separate trading days · Positive edge after costs · Survives without the best year · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 3-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
0 signals set aside across 0 disclosure days; 0 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+5.4%
on average after 3 months · 196 tries
Similar stocks returned
+2.5%
this did 2.9 percentage points better
Made money in
146 of 196
tries (74%)
196 tries finished the 3-month test · 10 still open · 298 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector.
| How it did against similar stocks | 2.9 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | +0.6 pp to +5.3 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 196 tries on 137 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 61% from a single year ✓ spread across years |
| Spread across many stocks? | 24% from a single stock ✓ broad |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +2.3 pp vs similar stocks without LLY ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 196 finished ideas: 1 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- LLY · Jul 9, 2026 · Return −2.4% · −6.9 pp vs similar stocks
- JNJ · Jul 7, 2026 · Return −5.1% · −7.3 pp vs similar stocks
- PFE · May 15, 2026 · Return +7.5% · −9.1 pp vs similar stocks
- LLY · May 14, 2026 · Return +21.2% · +5.8 pp vs similar stocks
- AMGN · Apr 23, 2026 · Return +5.6% · −3.9 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
LLY · Jul 9, 2026 · Return −2.4% · −6.9 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- LLY · Jul 9, 2026 · Return −2.4% · −6.9 pp vs similar stocks
- JNJ · Jul 7, 2026 · Return −5.1% · −7.3 pp vs similar stocks
- PFE · May 15, 2026 · Return +7.5% · −9.1 pp vs similar stocks
- LLY · May 14, 2026 · Return +21.2% · +5.8 pp vs similar stocks
- AMGN · Apr 23, 2026 · Return +5.6% · −3.9 pp vs similar stocks
Ideas for the week of Jul 13
Week of Jul 13 · 2 ideas, weighted by signal strength, each sold 3 months after it fired — information to research, not an order to buy or sell.
Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 10 still open · 196 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
JNJFinished
- Final return
- −5.1%
- vs similar stocks
- −7.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 7, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 5, 2026
PFEFinished
- Final return
- +7.5%
- vs similar stocks
- −9.1 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- May 15, 2026
- Exit date
- Aug 13, 2026
LLYFinished
- Final return
- +21.2%
- vs similar stocks
- +5.8 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- May 14, 2026
- Exit date
- Aug 12, 2026
AMGNFinished
- Final return
- +5.6%
- vs similar stocks
- −3.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 23, 2026
- Exit date
- Jul 22, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Jul 9, 2026 | Finished | Oct 7, 2026 | −2.4% | −6.9 pp |
| JNJ | Jul 7, 2026 | Finished | Oct 5, 2026 | −5.1% | −7.3 pp |
| PFE | May 15, 2026 | Finished | Aug 13, 2026 | +7.5% | −9.1 pp |
| LLY | May 14, 2026 | Finished | Aug 12, 2026 | +21.2% | +5.8 pp |
| AMGN | Apr 23, 2026 | Finished | Jul 22, 2026 | +5.6% | −3.9 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 206 ideas
201 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+5.4%
range for the average (95%): +2.9% to +8.4%
Edge over similar stocks
+2.9 pp
range for the average (95%): +0.6 pp to +5.3 pp
Held a year instead: +22.7% on average (141 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.88 — solid: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is +2.1 pp instead of +2.9 pp — part of the edge is those tilts — the real edge is smaller. Tilts: Value +1.05 · Investment −0.62 · Momentum −0.57 · R² 0.19.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $984M a day; 0% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $9.8M; with 10 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $98.4M.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +2.4 pp (32 tries) · normal +3.0 pp (150 tries) · stressed +2.9 pp (14 tries).