RYTMFinished
- Final return
- −18.5%
- vs similar stocks
- −26.4 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 16, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 14, 2026
Buy when a major drug trial completes
Buy Buy Drugmakers When a Major Drug Trial Finishes · ClinicalTrials.gov events
Drug companies register their trials with the government, and the record shows when a late-stage (Phase 2 or 3) trial is finished. Results usually come out within a few weeks. This buys the company for three months when a trial is marked complete, but only once per company every three months, since big drugmakers finish trials most weeks. Past tests showed a small gain on average; the record decides.
Newest idea yesterday
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: ClinicalTrials.gov events, 1 day · Every feed →
Not an approval
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 5 of 16 checks:
- After trading costs, the range for its average still dips below zero.
- Its edge leans on one year: without its best year it doesn't hold up.
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 11: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Every trade priced · Enough separate trading days · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 3-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
2 signals set aside across 2 disclosure days; 2 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+7.5%
on average after 3 months · 62 tries
Similar stocks returned
+5.0%
this did 2.5 percentage points better
Made money in
38 of 62
tries (61%)
62 tries finished the 3-month test · 17 still open · 90 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 4 of 62 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 2.5 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | −1.4 pp to +6.6 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 62 tries on 54 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | More than all of the edge came from a single year (149%) — the rest took some back ⚠ one year did most of it |
| Spread across many stocks? | 36% from a single stock ⚠ leans on one stock |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +1.6 pp vs similar stocks without MRNA ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 62 finished ideas: 4 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- RYTM · Jul 16, 2026 · Return −18.5% · −26.4 pp vs similar stocks
- BHC · Jul 15, 2026 · Return +20.2% · +12.7 pp vs similar stocks
- AMGN · Jul 6, 2026 · Return +10.4% · +6.7 pp vs similar stocks
- INCY · Jun 12, 2026 · Return +13.4% · +5.2 pp vs similar stocks
- BAYRY · Jun 9, 2026 · Return +40.3% · +36.1 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
RYTM · Jul 16, 2026 · Return −18.5% · −26.4 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- RYTM · Jul 16, 2026 · Return −18.5% · −26.4 pp vs similar stocks
- BHC · Jul 15, 2026 · Return +20.2% · +12.7 pp vs similar stocks
- AMGN · Jul 6, 2026 · Return +10.4% · +6.7 pp vs similar stocks
- INCY · Jun 12, 2026 · Return +13.4% · +5.2 pp vs similar stocks
- BAYRY · Jun 9, 2026 · Return +40.3% · +36.1 pp vs similar stocks
Ideas for the week of Jul 13
Week of Jul 13 · 10 ideas, weighted by signal strength, each sold 3 months after it fired — information to research, not an order to buy or sell.
Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 17 still open · 62 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
BHCFinished
- Final return
- +20.2%
- vs similar stocks
- +12.7 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 15, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 13, 2026
AMGNFinished
- Final return
- +10.4%
- vs similar stocks
- +6.7 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 6, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 5, 2026
INCYFinished
- Final return
- +13.4%
- vs similar stocks
- +5.2 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jun 12, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 10, 2026
BAYRYFinished
- Final return
- +40.3%
- vs similar stocks
- +36.1 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jun 9, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 8, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYTM | Jul 16, 2026 | Finished | Oct 14, 2026 | −18.5% | −26.4 pp |
| BHC | Jul 15, 2026 | Finished | Oct 13, 2026 | +20.2% | +12.7 pp |
| AMGN | Jul 6, 2026 | Finished | Oct 5, 2026 | +10.4% | +6.7 pp |
| INCY | Jun 12, 2026 | Finished | Sep 10, 2026 | +13.4% | +5.2 pp |
| BAYRY | Jun 9, 2026 | Finished | Sep 8, 2026 | +40.3% | +36.1 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 79 ideas
74 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+7.5%
range for the average (95%): +3.5% to +11.8%
Edge over similar stocks
+2.5 pp
range for the average (95%): −1.4 pp to +6.6 pp
Held a year instead: +71.7% on average (16 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.90 — solid: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is −2.8 pp instead of +2.5 pp — the edge is mostly those tilts. Tilts: Value +3.30 · Investment −2.60 · Market +1.50 · R² 0.42.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $364M a day; 0% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $3.6M; with 17 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $61.8M.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +9.4 pp (4 tries) · normal +2.1 pp (57 tries) · stressed −4.4 pp (1 try).