CMEFinished
- Final return
- +18.5%
- vs similar stocks
- +19.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 17, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 15, 2026
Companies with a federal lobbying filing
Buy At the Trough · Lobbying
This buys a company on the day its federal lobbying disclosure (money spent trying to influence Washington) is posted publicly, and holds it for three months. Companies that lobby have tended to beat their sector by a couple of points a quarter since this posting-date history began in mid-2024, and that holds whether the filing is the lobbyist's first or its fourth, so the rule holds the whole lobbying universe rather than a slice. What matters is which companies lobby, not the day the paperwork lands.
Newest idea 8 days ago
Updated Oct 11
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 4 of 16 checks:
- Some trades have no price we could check, often at companies that later stopped trading. The range shown counts only the priced ones; counting the rest at a poor result pulls its low end below zero.
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 12: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Enough separate trading days · Positive edge after costs · Survives without the best year · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 3-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
10 signals set aside across 2 disclosure days; 10 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+6.0%
on average after 3 months · 5,014 tries
Similar stocks returned
+4.0%
this did 2.0 percentage points better
Made money in
2,889 of 5,014
tries (58%)
5,014 tries finished the 3-month test · 338 still open · 8,806 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 56 of 5,014 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 2.0 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | +0.5 pp to +3.9 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 5,014 tries on 425 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 62% from a single year ✓ spread across years |
| Spread across many stocks? | 26% from a single stock ⚠ leans on one stock |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +1.5 pp vs similar stocks without EBS ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 5,014 finished ideas: 3 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- CME · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +18.5% · +19.9 pp vs similar stocks
- ECL · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +6.7% · +6.2 pp vs similar stocks
- INTC · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +0.1% · −7.7 pp vs similar stocks
- UAL · Jul 17, 2026 · Return −12.4% · −6.2 pp vs similar stocks
- WDAY · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +35.6% · +27.7 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
CME · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +18.5% · +19.9 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- CME · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +18.5% · +19.9 pp vs similar stocks
- ECL · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +6.7% · +6.2 pp vs similar stocks
- INTC · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +0.1% · −7.7 pp vs similar stocks
- UAL · Jul 17, 2026 · Return −12.4% · −6.2 pp vs similar stocks
- WDAY · Jul 17, 2026 · Return +35.6% · +27.7 pp vs similar stocks
Ideas for the week of Oct 12
This week's list isn't set yet — it's set on the first fresh data of the week of Oct 19.
That week's 10 ideas from this rule
Members see the stocks and their weights. Weeks older than 90 days are free for everyone — pick one below.
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Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 338 still open · 5,014 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
ECLFinished
- Final return
- +6.7%
- vs similar stocks
- +6.2 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 17, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 15, 2026
INTCFinished
- Final return
- +0.1%
- vs similar stocks
- −7.7 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 17, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 15, 2026
UALFinished
- Final return
- −12.4%
- vs similar stocks
- −6.2 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 17, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 15, 2026
WDAYFinished
- Final return
- +35.6%
- vs similar stocks
- +27.7 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 17, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 15, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CME | Jul 17, 2026 | Finished | Oct 15, 2026 | +18.5% | +19.9 pp |
| ECL | Jul 17, 2026 | Finished | Oct 15, 2026 | +6.7% | +6.2 pp |
| INTC | Jul 17, 2026 | Finished | Oct 15, 2026 | +0.1% | −7.7 pp |
| UAL | Jul 17, 2026 | Finished | Oct 15, 2026 | −12.4% | −6.2 pp |
| WDAY | Jul 17, 2026 | Finished | Oct 15, 2026 | +35.6% | +27.7 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 5,352 ideas
5,347 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+6.0%
range for the average (95%): +3.6% to +8.3%
Edge over similar stocks
+2.0 pp
range for the average (95%): +0.5 pp to +3.9 pp
Held a year instead: +28.9% on average (3,372 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.41 — choppy: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is +0.8 pp instead of +2.0 pp — part of the edge is those tilts — the real edge is smaller. Tilts: Market +0.91 · Profitability −0.40 · Investment −0.29 · R² 0.07.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $371M a day; 1% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $3.7M; with 338 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $1.3B.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm −0.5 pp (485 tries) · normal +1.9 pp (3,974 tries) · stressed +4.8 pp (555 tries).