This looks for stocks that may rise. It tracks only the stock purchases reported by U.S. Senators, leaving out the House. With just 100 Senators versus 435 House members, their trades give a more concentrated view. When a Senator reports buying a stock, this strategy flags it.
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: Congress trades, 1 day · Every feed →
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 1 year (365 days), from opening to closing an idea.
1
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
2
Hold 1 year
day 1day 365
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
3
Sell 1 year later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
⚪ Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 4 of 16 checks:
Some trades have no price we could check, often at companies that later stopped trading. The range shown counts only the priced ones; counting the rest at a poor result pulls its low end below zero.
It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 12: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Enough separate trading days · Positive edge after costs · Survives without the best year · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 1-year hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
0 signals set aside across 0 disclosure days; 0 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Average difference in past tests+3.5 percentage pointsagainst similar stocks, over 1 year
−4.0 pp0+4.0 pp
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+22.1%
on average after 1 year · 1,904 tries
Similar stocks returned
+18.6%
this did 3.5 percentage points better
Made money in
1,395 of 1,904
tries (73%)
1,904 tries finished the 1-year test · 508 still open · 3,390 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 182 of 2,083 tries here.)
How it did against similar stocks
3.5 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 1 year
Range for the average (95%)
+0.4 pp to +7.2 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case
Results include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost. Real fees and fills can differ. The same company can show up more than once, and ideas that overlap in time can move together. These are single ideas, not the growth of one account, and not a forecast.
Who this fired on
The disclosed trades behind this rule's newest ideas.
This week's list isn't set yet — it's set on the first fresh data of the week of Oct 19.
This rule published no ideas for the week of Oct 12.
Every idea
Results under the 1-year hold · 508 still open (the newest 150 listed) · 1,904 finished · each idea's sell day is 1 year after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (1 year)
+22.1%
range for the average (95%): +18.0% to +27.4%
Edge over similar stocks
+3.5 pp
range for the average (95%): +0.4 pp to +7.2 pp
Held a year instead: +22.1% on average (1,904 tries).
If you had the member's own timing — which nobody can: the trades are disclosed 30–45 days later — +23.6% on average after 1 year (1,915 tries), 2.8 percentage points better than similar stocks.
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.56 — solid: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
The same ideas, sold different ways. Headline results use the 1-year hold. A declared exit stays fixed for the calculation; choosing a winner from this table after seeing its results can overstate the evidence.
Sell rule
Average result
Middle result
vs similar stocks
Tries
1-month hold
+2.3%
+1.4%
+0.4 pp
2,417
3-month hold
+4.7%
+4.1%
−0.1 pp
2,083
6-month hold
+9.1%
+7.4%
+0.8 pp
2,055
1-year hold (headline comparison)
+22.1%
+16.4%
+3.5 pp
1,904
8% trailing stop · held about 63 days
+2.9%
−0.8%
−0.2 pp
1,906
15% trailing stop · held about 200 days
+8.8%
+0.8%
+0.9 pp
1,904
Sell at a 20% gain · held about 273 days
+10.0%
+20.0%
−0.8 pp
1,905
Sell at a 35% gain · held about 366 days
+14.1%
+17.8%
+0.1 pp
1,904
Sell at a 50% gain · held about 366 days
+16.5%
+16.5%
+1.0 pp
1,904
Sell at an 8% loss · held about 266 days
+12.3%
−8.3%
+2.0 pp
1,905
Sell at a 12% loss · held about 366 days
+15.5%
+6.6%
+2.8 pp
1,904
Sell at a 20% loss · held about 366 days
+19.3%
+13.6%
+3.8 pp
1,904
Sell at a 20% gain or a 10% loss · held about 125 days
+5.9%
+11.9%
−0.3 pp
1,905
Sell at a 30% gain or a 15% loss · held about 239 days
+9.9%
+13.4%
+0.4 pp
1,904
Sell at a 50% gain or a 25% loss · held about 366 days
+14.4%
+15.0%
+1.2 pp
1,904
Volatility stop (2×) · held about 21 days
+1.4%
−0.8%
0.0 pp
1,906
Volatility stop (3×) · held about 38 days
+2.0%
−0.8%
−0.1 pp
1,906
Sell below the 10-day average · held about 11 days
+0.6%
−0.3%
−0.2 pp
1,906
Sell below the 20-day average · held about 18 days
+1.4%
−0.4%
+0.1 pp
1,906
Sell below the 50-day average · held about 37 days
+2.2%
−0.2%
+0.3 pp
1,906
Sell below the 100-day average · held about 59 days
+5.0%
+0.6%
+0.7 pp
1,906
Sell below the 200-day average · held about 112 days
+8.5%
+1.4%
+1.0 pp
1,906
Breakeven stop after a 5% gain · held about 234 days
+11.6%
−0.6%
+2.0 pp
1,905
Breakeven stop after an 8% gain · held about 366 days
+14.4%
−0.4%
+2.5 pp
1,904
Breakeven stop after a 15% gain · held about 366 days
+17.8%
+8.2%
+2.6 pp
1,904
Risk and style checks
After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is −1.5 pp instead of −0.1 pp — the edge is mostly those tilts. Tilts: Market +1.15 · Investment −0.45 · Value +0.27 · R² 0.30.
The stocks it picked trade a median $386M a day; 4% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
At one percent of that volume a trade is about $3.9M; with 508 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $2B.
The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +2.8 pp (51 tries) · normal +0.9 pp (203 tries) · stressed −6.2 pp (17 tries).
