This looks for stocks that may rise. It mirrors the recent stock purchases reported by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who is widely known for her trading timing. When a new purchase is disclosed, this strategy highlights that stock. It simply tracks an observed pattern in her reported trades, not any secret knowledge.
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: Congress trades, 1 day · Every feed →
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 1 year (365 days), from opening to closing an idea.
1
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
2
Hold 1 year
day 1day 365
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
3
Sell 1 year later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
⚪ Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 6 of 16 checks:
It needs at least 30 finished trades on 20 separate days.
After trading costs, the range for its average still dips below zero.
Its edge leans on a few stocks: without its three best it doesn't hold up.
It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 10: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Every trade priced · Survives without the best year · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 1-year hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
0 signals set aside across 0 disclosure days; 0 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Average difference in past tests+25.5 percentage pointsagainst similar stocks, over 1 year
−30.0 pp0+30.0 pp
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+40.1%
on average after 1 year · 16 tries
Similar stocks returned
+14.6%
this did 25.5 percentage points better
Made money in
11 of 16
tries — too few to trust yet
16 tries finished the 1-year test · 10 still open · 33 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector.
How it did against similar stocks
25.5 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 1 year
Range for the average (95%)
−2.5 pp to +62.8 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case
Results include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost. Real fees and fills can differ. The same company can show up more than once, and ideas that overlap in time can move together. These are single ideas, not the growth of one account, and not a forecast.
Who this fired on
The disclosed trades behind this rule's newest ideas.
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (1 year)
+40.1%
range for the average (95%): +10.1% to +81.3%
Edge over similar stocks
+25.5 pp
range for the average (95%): −2.5 pp to +62.8 pp
Held a year instead: +40.1% on average (16 tries).
If you had the member's own timing — which nobody can: the trades are disclosed 30–45 days later — +49.6% on average after 1 year (17 tries), 31.2 percentage points better than similar stocks.
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.58 — solid: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
The same ideas, sold different ways. Headline results use the 1-year hold. A declared exit stays fixed for the calculation; choosing a winner from this table after seeing its results can overstate the evidence.
Sell rule
Average result
Middle result
vs similar stocks
Tries
1-month hold
−0.8%
−0.4%
−0.2 pp
26
3-month hold
+3.7%
−0.1%
+2.8 pp
24
6-month hold
+18.7%
+7.9%
+12.5 pp
22
1-year hold (headline comparison)
+40.1%
+28.3%
+25.5 pp
16
8% trailing stop · held about 13 days
−1.1%
−7.1%
−0.3 pp
16
15% trailing stop · held about 42 days
+2.9%
−7.2%
+3.1 pp
16
Sell at a 20% gain · held about 137 days
+16.2%
+21.1%
+7.5 pp
16
Sell at a 35% gain · held about 233 days
+24.5%
+35.4%
+12.0 pp
16
Sell at a 50% gain · held about 364 days
+29.4%
+40.5%
+16.2 pp
16
Sell at an 8% loss · held about 14 days
+10.2%
−8.7%
+9.0 pp
16
Sell at a 12% loss · held about 38 days
+14.2%
−12.6%
+12.7 pp
16
Sell at a 20% loss · held about 285 days
+14.3%
−21.0%
+11.3 pp
16
Sell at a 20% gain or a 10% loss · held about 23 days
+0.8%
−10.5%
+1.7 pp
16
Sell at a 30% gain or a 15% loss · held about 51 days
+6.3%
−15.5%
+6.0 pp
16
Sell at a 50% gain or a 25% loss · held about 138 days
+15.5%
+29.0%
+11.0 pp
16
Volatility stop (2×) · held about 12 days
−4.3%
−6.1%
−3.0 pp
16
Volatility stop (3×) · held about 18 days
−2.7%
−7.5%
−1.9 pp
16
Sell below the 10-day average · held about 11 days
−4.3%
−1.7%
−2.6 pp
16
Sell below the 20-day average · held about 25 days
−5.6%
−2.8%
−4.2 pp
16
Sell below the 50-day average · held about 30 days
−2.5%
−3.8%
−1.1 pp
16
Sell below the 100-day average · held about 22 days
+4.8%
−1.9%
+4.5 pp
16
Sell below the 200-day average · held about 101 days
+5.6%
−5.5%
+5.9 pp
16
Breakeven stop after a 5% gain · held about 201 days
+22.2%
−0.7%
+16.2 pp
16
Breakeven stop after an 8% gain · held about 261 days
+21.3%
−0.9%
+15.4 pp
16
Breakeven stop after a 15% gain · held about 301 days
+21.7%
−0.5%
+14.2 pp
16
Risk and style checks
The stocks it picked trade a median $6.5B a day; 0% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
At one percent of that volume a trade is about $65.3M; with 10 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $653M.
The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +20.2 pp (4 tries) · normal +0.1 pp (19 tries) · stressed −15.3 pp (1 try).
