MFPFinished
- Final return
- −9.3%
- vs similar stocks
- −3.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 14, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 12, 2026
Buy new spin-offs after their first week
Buy · Spin-offs
Sometimes a company splits off one of its businesses into a new company and hands the new shares to its own stockholders. Many big funds cannot or will not keep the small new stock, so they sell it in the first few days, which can push the price too low. This buys the new company one week after its shares start trading and holds it for three months. The first trading day comes from the company's own filings.
Technical details
Source: Spin-offs (Form 10)
Newest idea 9 days ago
Updated Oct 17 · 1 feed behind: Spin-offs (Form 10), 1 day · Every feed →
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 6 of 16 checks:
- Some trades have no price we could check, often at companies that later stopped trading. The range shown counts only the priced ones; counting the rest at a poor result pulls its low end below zero.
- After trading costs, the range for its average still dips below zero.
- Its edge leans on a few stocks: without its three best it doesn't hold up.
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 10: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Enough separate trading days · Survives without the best year · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 3-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
1 signals set aside across 1 disclosure days; 1 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+5.3%
on average after 3 months · 95 tries
Similar stocks returned
+3.1%
this did 2.2 percentage points better
Made money in
52 of 95
tries (55%)
95 tries finished the 3-month test · 2 still open · 155 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 6 of 95 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 2.2 percentage points better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | −2.8 pp to +7.4 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 95 tries on 90 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 71% from a single year ⚠ one year did most of it |
| Spread across many stocks? | 46% from a single stock ⚠ leans on one stock |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +1.2 pp vs similar stocks without TRAX ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 95 finished ideas: 1 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- MFP · Jul 14, 2026 · Return −9.3% · −3.3 pp vs similar stocks
- MBGL · Jul 9, 2026 · Return −21.9% · −14.9 pp vs similar stocks
- HONA · Jul 7, 2026 · Return −34.8% · −28.3 pp vs similar stocks
- FDXF · Jun 9, 2026 · Return −31.7% · −31.3 pp vs similar stocks
- OCTV · May 28, 2026 · Return +8.9% · +10.9 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
MFP · Jul 14, 2026 · Return −9.3% · −3.3 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- MFP · Jul 14, 2026 · Return −9.3% · −3.3 pp vs similar stocks
- MBGL · Jul 9, 2026 · Return −21.9% · −14.9 pp vs similar stocks
- HONA · Jul 7, 2026 · Return −34.8% · −28.3 pp vs similar stocks
- FDXF · Jun 9, 2026 · Return −31.7% · −31.3 pp vs similar stocks
- OCTV · May 28, 2026 · Return +8.9% · +10.9 pp vs similar stocks
Ideas for the week of Jul 13
This rule published no ideas for the week of Jul 13.
Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 2 still open · 95 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
MBGLFinished
- Final return
- −21.9%
- vs similar stocks
- −14.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 9, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 7, 2026
HONAFinished
- Final return
- −34.8%
- vs similar stocks
- −28.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jul 7, 2026
- Exit date
- Oct 5, 2026
FDXFFinished
- Final return
- −31.7%
- vs similar stocks
- −31.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Jun 9, 2026
- Exit date
- Sep 8, 2026
OCTVFinished
- Final return
- +8.9%
- vs similar stocks
- +10.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- May 28, 2026
- Exit date
- Aug 26, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFP | Jul 14, 2026 | Finished | Oct 12, 2026 | −9.3% | −3.3 pp |
| MBGL | Jul 9, 2026 | Finished | Oct 7, 2026 | −21.9% | −14.9 pp |
| HONA | Jul 7, 2026 | Finished | Oct 5, 2026 | −34.8% | −28.3 pp |
| FDXF | Jun 9, 2026 | Finished | Sep 8, 2026 | −31.7% | −31.3 pp |
| OCTV | May 28, 2026 | Finished | Aug 26, 2026 | +8.9% | +10.9 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 97 ideas
92 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+5.3%
range for the average (95%): 0.0% to +11.0%
Edge over similar stocks
+2.2 pp
range for the average (95%): −2.8 pp to +7.4 pp
Held a year instead: +42.6% on average (84 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.41 — choppy: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is +0.9 pp instead of +2.2 pp — part of the edge is those tilts — the real edge is smaller. Tilts: Market +1.66 · Size +0.78 · Investment +0.66 · R² 0.18.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $35M a day; 9% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $350K; with 2 ideas open now, an equal-weight book is about $701K.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): calm +12.4 pp (9 tries) · normal +0.2 pp (39 tries) · stressed −14.9 pp (8 tries).