MKCFinished
- Final return
- +5.0%
- vs similar stocks
- +2.3 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 1, 2026
- Exit date
- Jun 30, 2026
Earnings up 30%+ from a year ago
Buy YoY Monster · Company financials
This looks for stocks that may rise after a company reports much stronger profits than the same quarter a year earlier, with per-share earnings up more than 30 percent. It triggers on the day the official SEC quarterly or annual report is filed, and it uses data going back many years, so it covers many different market conditions. Heads up: in our tests this did not clearly beat the market, and it tended to stumble during market panics, so we show it for honesty rather than as a standout idea.
Newest idea 199 days ago
Data freshness unknown
On this page
How the test works
The planned holding period in these tests is 3 months (90 days), from opening to closing an idea.
Buy it when it fires
At the next trading day’s close after the record posts — the first price anyone could have had.
Hold 3 months
The same hold for every idea — no stop, no target — so nothing flatters the numbers.
Sell 3 months later
At the next available trading close on or after the end of the hold, whatever the price.
Every number on this page uses this sell rule — the other sell rules we tested are under “The full test results and the math” below.
How it did in past tests
Research only — not yet confirmed by new trades
Publication check: Research only
Not passed yet — 5 of 16 checks:
- Some trades have no price we could check, often at companies that later stopped trading. The range shown counts only the priced ones; counting the rest at a poor result pulls its low end below zero.
- After trading costs, the range for its average still dips below zero.
- It needs at least 20 finished trades on 10 separate days after the rule was frozen.
- Some of those new trades are still open; each has to finish its full hold.
- Those new trades then have to beat similar stocks after costs, by more than luck across every rule we tried.
Passed — the other 11: Current calculation · Public disclosure dates · Complete finished trades · Every trade compared · Enough separate trading days · Survives without the best year · Survives without the best three stocks · Survives higher costs · Rule frozen before the test · Rules tried alongside it counted · First new signals set aside.
Tested exit: 3-month hold. Historical results alone do not approve a rule for publication. New event tests include an estimated 0.20 percentage point round-trip trading cost, with a 0.50-point stress check.
New trades so far: 0 finished, across — separate days after the rule was frozen.
0 signals set aside across 0 disclosure days; 0 still need complete results. Missing results stay in the count.
Left: did worse · right: did better. Zero matches the comparison. pp = percentage points; the scale adjusts to include the result.
In past tests, each idea returned
+1.7%
on average after 3 months · 679 tries
Similar stocks returned
+0.7%
this did 1.0 percentage point better
Made money in
344 of 679
tries (51%)
679 tries finished the 3-month test · 0 still open · 818 signals ever
Past results don't predict future ones.
Similar stocks means the index fund for each idea's sector — or the S&P 500 when we can't place its sector. (The S&P 500 for 2 of 679 tries here.)
| How it did against similar stocks | 1.0 percentage point better than similar stocks — over 3 months |
|---|---|
| Range for the average (95%) | 0.0 pp to +2.0 pp vs similar stocks — the range the average probably falls in, not a best-to-worst case |
| Tested on enough tries? | 679 tries on 104 separate days ✓ enough |
| Works in different markets? | 57% from a single year ✓ spread across years |
| Spread across many stocks? | 16% from a single stock ✓ broad |
| Still works without its biggest winner? | +0.8 pp vs similar stocks without APP ✓ holds up |
The 5 newest of 679 finished ideas: 3 of 5 beat similar stocks — one block each, newest first
- MKC · Apr 1, 2026 · Return +5.0% · +2.3 pp vs similar stocks
- PRGS · Apr 1, 2026 · Return +33.6% · −7.7 pp vs similar stocks
- AGX · Mar 27, 2026 · Return +32.8% · +16.9 pp vs similar stocks
- GME · Mar 25, 2026 · Return −8.9% · −11.8 pp vs similar stocks
- ENBP · Mar 23, 2026 · Return +14.9% · +5.5 pp vs similar stocks
did betterdid worseno comparison
MKC · Apr 1, 2026 · Return +5.0% · +2.3 pp vs similar stocks
Inspect all 5 displayed outcomes
pp = percentage points above or below the comparable stock return.
- MKC · Apr 1, 2026 · Return +5.0% · +2.3 pp vs similar stocks
- PRGS · Apr 1, 2026 · Return +33.6% · −7.7 pp vs similar stocks
- AGX · Mar 27, 2026 · Return +32.8% · +16.9 pp vs similar stocks
- GME · Mar 25, 2026 · Return −8.9% · −11.8 pp vs similar stocks
- ENBP · Mar 23, 2026 · Return +14.9% · +5.5 pp vs similar stocks
Ideas for the week of Oct 12
This week's list isn't set yet — it's set on the first fresh data of the week of Oct 19.
This rule published no ideas for the week of Oct 12.
Every idea
Results under the 3-month hold · 0 still open · 679 finished · each idea's sell day is 3 months after it fired · an open idea shows its result so far.
PRGSFinished
- Final return
- +33.6%
- vs similar stocks
- −7.7 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Apr 1, 2026
- Exit date
- Jun 30, 2026
AGXFinished
- Final return
- +32.8%
- vs similar stocks
- +16.9 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Mar 27, 2026
- Exit date
- Jun 25, 2026
GMEFinished
- Final return
- −8.9%
- vs similar stocks
- −11.8 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Mar 25, 2026
- Exit date
- Jun 23, 2026
ENBPFinished
- Final return
- +14.9%
- vs similar stocks
- +5.5 pp
Dates & source
- Fired
- Mar 23, 2026
- Exit date
- Jun 22, 2026
| Stock | Fired | Status | Sell day | Result | vs similar stocks (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC | Apr 1, 2026 | Finished | Jun 30, 2026 | +5.0% | +2.3 pp |
| PRGS | Apr 1, 2026 | Finished | Jun 30, 2026 | +33.6% | −7.7 pp |
| AGX | Mar 27, 2026 | Finished | Jun 25, 2026 | +32.8% | +16.9 pp |
| GME | Mar 25, 2026 | Finished | Jun 23, 2026 | −8.9% | −11.8 pp |
| ENBP | Mar 23, 2026 | Finished | Jun 22, 2026 | +14.9% | +5.5 pp |
pp = percentage points: the return minus the comparable-stock return. A dash means the comparison is unavailable.
Showing 5 of 679 ideas
674 more ideas, each with its result
Members see every idea this rule fired, open and finished, under any of the sell rules we tested — and can download them.
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The full test results and the math
pp means percentage points: the difference between two returns. Actual returns are shown in %.
Average result (3 months)
+1.7%
range for the average (95%): −0.9% to +4.5%
Edge over similar stocks
+1.0 pp
range for the average (95%): 0.0 pp to +2.0 pp
Held a year instead: +6.6% on average (669 tries).
Steadiness (Sharpe ratio) 0.22 — choppy: how even the results were from one try to the next.
Every sell rule we tested
Every sell rule we tested, side by side, comes with membership.
Risk and style checks
- After style factors (market, size, value, momentum…) the edge is +0.1 pp instead of +1.0 pp — the edge is mostly those tilts. Tilts: Market +1.00 · Value −0.57 · Investment +0.43 · R² 0.22.
- The stocks it picked trade a median $94.3M a day; 2% of its ideas were in thin stocks (under $2M a day).
- At one percent of that volume a trade is about $943K.
- The edge by market fear on the day it fired (the VIX): normal −11.7 pp (2 tries) · stressed +1.0 pp (677 tries).