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Patterns in public records, tested

Strategies

Explore the rules behind the ideas. Compare the evidence, open the details, and follow a strategy from signal to result.

Browse the strategies

Updated Oct 17

Strategies we test
23
plus 2 still gathering data
Solid evidence
None yet
beat similar stocks by more than luck
Firing now
18
of all 23, with an idea open today

A strategy’s big number is its edge over similar stocks in past tests; the smaller line is its average return over the stated hold (monthly strategies show an average month). Weekly Top 10 shows its total tracked return. Hypothetical results — not investment advice.

ThemeAll8Firing now7FDA & biotech1
More filters · 1 changed
EvidenceSolid0Solid or some0All8
DirectionAll23Buy14Sell short8Buy + sell short1

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

SortBest edgeMost triesNewest idea

No rule has passed the publication check yet — here is what it takes

All strategies

Showing 8 of 23 strategies · short sales

Sell short after a reverse stock splitSell When a Reverse Stock Split Takes EffectDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+16.5 pp+14.0% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
+14.0%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
16.5
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
42 of 66
tries (64%)

2 open now · next buy-back Oct 25 · Company filings

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Sell short after an FDA clinical holdSell When the FDA Puts a Trial on HoldDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+4.4 pp−0.3% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−0.3%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
4.4
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
107 of 222
tries (48%)

8 open now · next buy-back Sep 21 · Company filings

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Sell short after a private share saleCorporate events (8-K)Direction: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+3.2 pp−0.7% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−0.7%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
3.2
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
783 of 1,595
tries (49%)

69 open now · next buy-back Oct 18 · Corporate events

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Sell short after an earnings-delay noticeCan't File? Short ItDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+3.2 pp−0.5% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−0.5%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
3.2
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
84 of 165
tries (51%)

5 open now · next buy-back Nov 10 · Late-filing notices

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Sell short after a civil investigative demandSell When a Regulator Demands DocumentsDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+2.5 pp−3.3% avg. short return over 6 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 6 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 6 months
  3. Close it 6 months later

In past tests · each short position held 6 months

Selling each stock short made
−3.3%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
2.5
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
343 of 728
tries (47%)

50 open now · next buy-back Oct 19 · Company filings

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Sell short after repeated SEC accounting lettersSell When the SEC Keeps Questioning the AccountingDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+2.4 pp0.0% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
0.0%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
2.4
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
462 of 932
tries (50%)

10 open now · next buy-back Nov 10 · SEC staff comment letters

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Sell short after SEC accounting questionsSell When the SEC Questions the AccountingDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+1.2 pp−1.9% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−1.9%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
1.2
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
954 of 2,117
tries (45%)

30 open now · next buy-back Oct 21 · SEC staff comment letters

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Sell short after a first control weaknessSell When a Company First Reports a Control WeaknessDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+0.7 pp−2.7% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−2.7%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
0.7
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
267 of 613
tries (44%)

Newest idea Nov 15, 2023 · 10-K text change

Explore strategy Share

Go deeper

Our track record →The ideas we show, tracked from the day we first show them — misses included.How we test →Each idea is measured against similar stocks over a fixed hold. Here is how the grade works.Combine rules yourself →Mix our strategies in the Strategy Lab and get the same honest grade.Compare strategies →Put two or three side by side: grades, numbers and shared trades.

Hypothetical, not investment advice. Each position is opened at the next trading day’s close after the record became public and held for the stated time. Sell short ideas assume borrowed shares are sold, then bought back to close. Past results do not predict future results.