Patterns in public records, tested
FDA & biotech strategies
Strategies built on FDA approvals, drug trials and device filings, each with its honest grade from past tests — including the ones that don't work.
Filtered to FDA & biotech · Clear filters
Browse the strategiesUpdated Oct 17
A strategy’s big number is its edge over similar stocks in past tests; the smaller line is its average return over the stated hold (monthly strategies show an average month). Weekly Top 10 shows its total tracked return. Hypothetical results — not investment advice.
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Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.
No rule has passed the publication check yet — here is what it takes
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Showing 4 of 23 strategies · FDA & biotech · buys
3+ FDA approvals while markets are jumpyApprovals Through the ChaosDirection: Buy Waiting for source datesNot graded until re-testedvs similar stocks+8.6 pp+11.2% avg. over 3 months, past tests
Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later
These come from an older version of our test and are not graded until it is rerun.
Test sequence
- Buy it when it fires
- Hold 3 months
- Sell 3 months later
In past tests · each idea held 3 months
- Each idea returned
- +11.2%
- on average
- Vs similar stocks
- 8.6
- percentage points better than similar stocks
- Made money in
- 74 of 100
- tries (74%)
Newest idea Apr 2 · FDA drug approvals
Explore strategy ShareCongress buys after a failed drug trialBuy the Trial FlopDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+5.9 pp+10.2% avg. over 6 months, past tests
Buy when it fires · sell 6 months later
Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.
Test sequence
- Buy it when it fires
- Hold 6 months
- Sell 6 months later
In past tests · each idea held 6 months
- Each idea returned
- +10.2%
- on average
- Vs similar stocks
- 5.9
- percentage points better than similar stocks
- Made money in
- 51 of 73
- tries (70%)
10 open now · next sell Jan 2, 2027 · Congress trades
Explore strategy ShareHouse member buys before a drug-trial updateLab Coats & LawmakersDirection: Buy Collecting forward evidencePast checks passedvs similar stocks+2.9 pp+5.4% avg. over 3 months, past tests
Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later
Its past tests passed our checks; now it must hold up on new trades.
Test sequence
- Buy it when it fires
- Hold 3 months
- Sell 3 months later
In past tests · each idea held 3 months
- Each idea returned
- +5.4%
- on average
- Vs similar stocks
- 2.9
- percentage points better than similar stocks
- Made money in
- 146 of 196
- tries (74%)
10 open now · next sell Nov 8 · ClinicalTrials.gov events
Explore strategy ShareBuy when a major drug trial completesBuy Drugmakers When a Major Drug Trial FinishesDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+2.5 pp+7.5% avg. over 3 months, past tests
Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later
Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.
Test sequence
- Buy it when it fires
- Hold 3 months
- Sell 3 months later
In past tests · each idea held 3 months
- Each idea returned
- +7.5%
- on average
- Vs similar stocks
- 2.5
- percentage points better than similar stocks
- Made money in
- 38 of 62
- tries (61%)
17 open now · next sell Oct 21 · ClinicalTrials.gov events
Explore strategy ShareGo deeper
Hypothetical, not investment advice. Each position is opened at the next trading day’s close after the record became public and held for the stated time. Sell short ideas assume borrowed shares are sold, then bought back to close. Past results do not predict future results.