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Patterns in public records, tested

FDA & biotech strategies

Strategies built on FDA approvals, drug trials and device filings, each with its honest grade from past tests — including the ones that don't work.

Filtered to FDA & biotech · Clear filters

Browse the strategies

Updated Oct 17

Strategies we test
23
plus 2 still gathering data
Solid evidence
None yet
beat similar stocks by more than luck
Firing now
18
of all 23, with an idea open today

A strategy’s big number is its edge over similar stocks in past tests; the smaller line is its average return over the stated hold (monthly strategies show an average month). Weekly Top 10 shows its total tracked return. Hypothetical results — not investment advice.

ThemeAll23Firing now18FDA & biotech5Fear & greed1
More filters: evidence, direction, sort
EvidenceSolid0Solid or some0All5
DirectionAll5Buy4Sell short1Buy + sell short0

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

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No rule has passed the publication check yet — here is what it takes

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Showing 5 of 23 strategies · FDA & biotech

3+ FDA approvals while markets are jumpyApprovals Through the ChaosDirection: Buy Waiting for source datesNot graded until re-testedvs similar stocks+8.6 pp+11.2% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

These come from an older version of our test and are not graded until it is rerun.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+11.2%
on average
Vs similar stocks
8.6
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
74 of 100
tries (74%)

Newest idea Apr 2 · FDA drug approvals

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Congress buys after a failed drug trialBuy the Trial FlopDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+5.9 pp+10.2% avg. over 6 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 6 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 6 months
  3. Sell 6 months later

In past tests · each idea held 6 months

Each idea returned
+10.2%
on average
Vs similar stocks
5.9
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
51 of 73
tries (70%)

10 open now · next sell Jan 2, 2027 · Congress trades

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Sell short after an FDA clinical holdSell When the FDA Puts a Trial on HoldDirection: Sell short Research onlyNot yet validatedvs shorting similar stocks+4.4 pp−0.3% avg. short return over 3 months, past tests

Sell short when it fires · close it 3 months later

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Sell short when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Close it 3 months later

In past tests · each short position held 3 months

Selling each stock short made
−0.3%
on average
Vs selling similar stocks short
4.4
percentage points better than selling similar stocks short
Made money in
107 of 222
tries (48%)

8 open now · next buy-back Sep 21 · Company filings

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House member buys before a drug-trial updateLab Coats & LawmakersDirection: Buy Collecting forward evidencePast checks passedvs similar stocks+2.9 pp+5.4% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Its past tests passed our checks; now it must hold up on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+5.4%
on average
Vs similar stocks
2.9
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
146 of 196
tries (74%)

10 open now · next sell Nov 8 · ClinicalTrials.gov events

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Buy when a major drug trial completesBuy Drugmakers When a Major Drug Trial FinishesDirection: Buy Research onlyNot yet validatedvs similar stocks+2.5 pp+7.5% avg. over 3 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 3 months later

Research, not proof: the rule has not passed every check yet, including one on new trades.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 3 months
  3. Sell 3 months later

In past tests · each idea held 3 months

Each idea returned
+7.5%
on average
Vs similar stocks
2.5
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
38 of 62
tries (61%)

17 open now · next sell Oct 21 · ClinicalTrials.gov events

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Go deeper

Our track record →The ideas we show, tracked from the day we first show them — misses included.How we test →Each idea is measured against similar stocks over a fixed hold. Here is how the grade works.Combine rules yourself →Mix our strategies in the Strategy Lab and get the same honest grade.Compare strategies →Put two or three side by side: grades, numbers and shared trades.

Hypothetical, not investment advice. Each position is opened at the next trading day’s close after the record became public and held for the stated time. Sell short ideas assume borrowed shares are sold, then bought back to close. Past results do not predict future results.