Skip to content

Patterns in public records, tested

Fear & greed strategies

Strategies that follow market fear and greed — volatility, the yield curve and market regimes — each with its honest grade, the ones that don't work included.

Filtered to Fear & greed · Clear filters

Browse the strategies

Updated Oct 17

Strategies we test
23
plus 2 still gathering data
Solid evidence
None yet
beat similar stocks by more than luck
Firing now
18
of all 23, with an idea open today

A strategy’s big number is its edge over similar stocks in past tests; the smaller line is its average return over the stated hold (monthly strategies show an average month). Weekly Top 10 shows its total tracked return. Hypothetical results — not investment advice.

ThemeAll23Firing now18FDA & biotech5Fear & greed1
More filters: evidence, direction, sort
EvidenceSolid0Solid or some0All1
DirectionAll1Buy1Sell short0Buy + sell short0

Selling short uses borrowed shares to try to profit from a falling price.

SortBest edgeMost triesNewest idea

No rule has passed the publication check yet — here is what it takes

All strategies

Showing 1 of 23 strategies · Fear & greed

Insider buys 30% drop during market fearFear + Dip = BuyDirection: Buy Waiting for source datesNot graded until re-testedvs similar stocks+5.0 pp+12.3% avg. over 6 months, past tests

Buy when it fires · sell 6 months later

These come from an older version of our test and are not graded until it is rerun.

Test sequence

  1. Buy it when it fires
  2. Hold 6 months
  3. Sell 6 months later

In past tests · each idea held 6 months

Each idea returned
+12.3%
on average
Vs similar stocks
5.0
percentage points better than similar stocks
Made money in
464 of 901
tries (51%)

1 open now · next sell Oct 17 · Insider filings

Explore strategy Share

Go deeper

Our track record →The ideas we show, tracked from the day we first show them — misses included.How we test →Each idea is measured against similar stocks over a fixed hold. Here is how the grade works.Combine rules yourself →Mix our strategies in the Strategy Lab and get the same honest grade.Compare strategies →Put two or three side by side: grades, numbers and shared trades.

Hypothetical, not investment advice. Each position is opened at the next trading day’s close after the record became public and held for the stated time. Sell short ideas assume borrowed shares are sold, then bought back to close. Past results do not predict future results.